Welcome to the nuclear club

Jul 19th 2005

Indian officials are hailing a breakthrough in relations with America following a meeting in Washington, DC between India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh, and George Bush. America has come close to accepting India, which has not signed international non-proliferation treaties, as a full nuclear power

FOR months, American officials have been insisting that "there is no higher priority" for George Bush's second term in office than "expanding and broadening our relationship with India". Their Indian counterparts, finding themselves in a diplomatic sweet spot, where it seems every country in the world is courting them, have preened themselves at the superpower's attentions. But its promises have rung rather hollow: America remains committed to its strong alliance with India's nuclear-armed neighbour and rival, Pakistan; it refuses to endorse India's chief foreign-policy goal, a permanent seat on an expanded United Nations Security Council; and co-operation in military and nuclear technology has been thwarted by India's status as a nuclear power, which tested atomic weapons in 1998 but has never signed up to the international non-proliferation regime.

On this last issue, at least, India can now point to a big step forward. In a joint statement published after the meeting between Mr Bush and Manmohan Singh, India's prime minister, on Monday July 18th, and subject to last-minute haggling even as the two men spoke to the press, America agreed that "as a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology"-a euphemism for the plant-"India should acquire the same benefits and advantages as other such states." This would open the way for what the statement calls "full civil nuclear energy co-operation" with India-such as fuel supplies and the transfer of technology.

The White House reports on the meeting between President Bush and India's prime minister Manmohan Singh. Although America has so far refused to back India's bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, it is offering to recognise India as a nuclear power, in return for regular inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. America's State Department outlines its relations with India and Pakistan.

This is hugely important for India. One of the biggest constraints on the continuing success of its fast-growing economy may be an electricity shortage. It urgently needs both new generating plants and fuel to fire them. Nuclear energy, which at present accounts for only about 3% of the country's total generation, is, in many Indian eyes, an attractive alternative to coal and expensive, imported oil and gas.

Such practical considerations aside, it is a symbolic victory that India is celebrating. For decades it has faced sanctions because of its nuclear-weapons programme. Now, America's president has promised not just to persuade its Congress to change laws impeding co-operation but also to consult other countries about adjusting international rules. Mr Bush is, in effect, offering to help India, which became a nuclear power as a rogue, become a respectable plant-wielding citizen. In return, India has promised to adopt the same responsibilities as other nuclear powers, including opening its civilian nuclear facilities to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency and maintaining its moratorium on nuclear testing.

America's concession to India is all the more remarkable in the light of the likely reaction in Pakistan, which, unlike India, has an appalling record of (allegedly unofficial) nuclear proliferation. It will be miffed that its ally is giving India privileges it does not enjoy-and certain to ask for the same.

Pakistan, however, will be pleased that America's love affair with India does not extend to open support of its Security Council bid. Of the main candidates for a permanent seat in an expanded council, only Japan has won American endorsement. Mr Bush went no further than to agree that international insbreastutions should reflect changes that have taken place since the Security Council was set up in 1945. Officials now argue that a vote in the UN on the issue should not take place until there has been a "broader reform" of the UN.

Despite that disappointment, Indian officials are jubilant that they have achieved "dehyphenation"-a decoupling of its relations with America from the India-Pakistan dispute, and from America's close ties with Islamabad. This reflects both India's emergence as an economic force to be reckoned with and the rise of its neighbour, China. Although India's economy is only about 40% the size of China's, its fast growth and young population mean that its global importance can only grow. Also, the development of its information-technology and outsourcing industries have put it on the map: just as the boss of any big American firm needs to tell his shareholders a China story, so he now needs an India strategy too. One of the features of Mr Singh's visit is the launch of a new forum of Indian and American chief executives.

American and Indian officials both stress that the two countries' relationship is independent of their respective relations with China. Yet America's stated ambition to help India "become a major power in the twenty-first century" cannot be viewed in isolation from apprehensions about China's looming might. Nor can India's determination to secure good relations with America be separated from its own long-term suspicions of China, with which it is at present enjoying something of a second honeymoon.

Both India and America recognise that, as democracies, they should have common interests. These were obscured by the legacy of the Cold War, which saw India lean towards the former Soviet Union, and America "play the China card". The inevitable Indo-American rapprochement was further delayed by the attacks on America on September 11th 2001 and by the subsequent importance of Pakistan in the "war against terror". Now, at last, India and America find themselves on the same side.