mcampbell
Hi mcampbell
I think it is very difficult to predict the timelines for the 2006-7 Program Year (which began on 1st July.) All the indicators I have read suggest that demand for CP visas is now exceeding supply. Not by a lot yet, but I suspect that over-subscription could well have been responsible (at least in part) for the recent slow-down at the POPC in May & June 2006. DIMA are only permitted to grant 3,500 Contributory Parent visas a year, which includes Contributory Aged Parent visas for parents able to apply from within Australia.
Although the machinery to cap the clbutt is in place, I think that would be a very unpopular move politically and I suspect that the Minister is trying everything short of applying the cap. I don't know whether she has the power to increase the quota during the Program Year but even if she has, she might decide not to do it.
At the beginning of June, the POPC told me "about 12 months" for the immediately-permanent CP visa. I didn't ask them about the temp one. However Alan Collett of Go Matilda t, whom I respect greatly, said recently that his firm had recently obtained a temp CP visa for a client and that it had taken 10 months in total.
I can readily believe that it would take 4-8 weeks less for the temp visa, because there is no need to put an butturance of Support into place for them. The AoS is handled by Centrelink, not by DIMA. The Helpdesk number that Centrelink give for the AoS puts you through to somebody in Tasmania! The butturer goes for the AoS interview at their local Centrelink office, and signs the AoS form there. They also lodge the Bond locally and give the receipt to the local Centrelink office. I don't know whether the documents then go to Tasmania and someone in Tbuttie confirms to the POPC that the AoS part of the process is complete, but it sounds like a right rigmarole to me!
Cheers
Gill
