drought

Yes. ItÎs a funny old season.

We are starting to get mushrooms in the fields - unusual in August.

Our blackberries ar also starting to colour; theyÎve been ready for a few weeks lower down in the area. We used to pick blackberries when we came here on holiday in September some years ago, and that was in a sheltered area near sea level - we are 500 feet up and exposed.

Received a copy of a document on Food Security this week; produced by "The Commercial Farmers Group" and enbreastled "National Food Security". Just a few figures from it:

1. Uk had 87% self sufficiency in indigenous foods in 1995; in 2005 we were down to 70% and the curve is still downward. We import almost one third of our requirements in goods we could produce ourselves.

2. World population has doubled since 1980 although the curve is flattening out. Currently 6.3 billion, UN projection of 9 billion by 2030. Food requirement expected to double in the next 25 years. Global food requirement projections (Prof Dyson, LSE) say: (ii) Based on additional demand due to income rise in developing countries (increase in meat in diet), demand will rise to 3,045 M.tonnes (increase of 50% on current demand).

3. Dairy: In a govt funded report (Prof. Colman, Manchester University), it is claimed that UK milk production could fall by 1 billion litres a year by 2008 (how many litres do we produce now ie what % is that?).

4. Poultry: Uk imports have increased from 1,000 to 70,000 tonnes in the last 10 years. There are questions about the animal welfare these birds are raised in and the dangers of disease import.

5. Fruit and veg - UK's planted area dropped by 20%, import costs increased by about 30%: Planted area on UK has dropped from 476,000 acres to 373,000 acre (about 20%) in the last 10 years The cost of imports has increased from £1,984,251,000 (£1,98) million) to £3,168 plus 1,034,000 in that time. (Source: Defra).

6. Pigs - sow numbers reduced by about 40%, imports of meat increased : Reduction from 789,000 sows to 468,000 over the last 10 years. Imports of pig meat increased from 362,000 tonnes to 738,000 tons in the same period. There are, again, questions about the welfare these animals are raised in.

7. Beef - Uk beef selfsuffiency dropped from 109% (excess) to 71%: We produced 109% of what we needed 10 years ago; now it is 71%. Chance of importing disease significantly increased since much of this meat comes from countries where foot & mouth is endemic.

8. China - Increase in desert area forces people to move to better land hence reduction in land available for crop production; industrial development-distribution also taking good land out of production. China is becoming a major importer of cereals and soya (Source: USDA).

9. Rate of increase in crop yields (breeding) is slowing down.

10. We are, in theory, keeping UK land in "croppable condition" by the various regulations but there is doubt that re-start-up of Bristish agriculture would be as easy as suggested (or as in WW2) because: (i) The average age of those still farming is now near 60; most young people have left the land and no longer have the skills; (ii) Support-processing capacity is reduced.

Now what is it going to cost us to import??????

In money and disease?

If we get pests and political buttaults in addition to droughts?

Are the UK population going to be able to pay it out of their dole money?

Just thought I'd cheer you all up.

Cbuttandra (ok....Jane)

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