60,000 seats

that kind

this is what i'm getting at- of course it's only one side of the argument but i'd like to know what rick parry estimates will be our average gate in a new 60k seater stadium.

"Do we need a 70,000 capacity stadium?"

"Whatever else is said, it is clearly evident that Liverpool Football Club DO need to increase capacity from the current 45,500. This current capacity is insufficient for the most attractive fixtures and affords little pricing flexibility other than for the less attractive games.

That said, the crucial questions still need to be asked - DO WE ACHIEVE THIS INCREASED CAPACITY BY MOVING TO A NEW 70,000 STADIUM AND IF WE DO SO CAN WE ATTRACT 70,000 FOR EVEN THE MOST PRESTIGIOUS FIXTURES LET ALONE ON A REGULAR BASIS? IF NOT, THEN WHAT INCREASED CAPACITY IS ACTUALLY NEEDED?

Let us first look at the pro-movers' representation of the current demand situation:-

We have an average league crowd of around 44,000 in a ground holding only 45,500. We also have a further 10-14,000 on the season ticket waiting list champing at the bit to get in.

The clear insinuation here is that if the aforesaid 44,000 are not quite all season ticket holders then they certainly represent the guaranteed minimum base upon which we need to build for the future.

Add the 10-14,000 waiting list to the 44,000 and that gives a virtually guaranteed catchment of 54-58,000. Throw in a further 2,000 -12,000 casual visitors depending on the attractiveness of the particular game and there is your magical 60-70,000 regular attendance.

Many Reds appear to have bought this convenient idealogy. Local "luminaries" such as the Liverpool Echo's Ken Rogers and Tommy Smith, definitely have. What's more they have expounded on it in print. Repeatedly.

Needless to say, the facts are significantly different. Alarmingly so:-

Liverpool Football Club currently restricts its season ticket holders to around 29,000. The season ticket waiting list is claimed to be 10-14,000. It is suspected that the real waiting list figure is closer to half that due to multiple applications, "officially unsanctioned" ticket inheritance arrangements, long-term drop-outs etc. Indeed, Rick Parry himself has recently hinted at it being nearer half the originally perpetrated figure. Discounting away supporters the rest of the regular 44,000 attendance is composed of around 12,000 specific match day ticket applications.

Incidentally, it should be stated here that the reason for the club restricting the number of season ticket holders and maximising the match-day applications is to balance the make-up of the clientele attending Anfield thereby satisfying the lucrative day-tripper following which in turn helps to sustain club shop turnover.

Back to the argument, the crucial point as far as the optimum capacity issue is concerned, is that the 12,000 match day applications effectively account for the whole of the season ticket waiting list demand.

YES, you heard right.

In other words for a run-of-the-mill league fixture there is NO FURTHER DEMAND OF ANY REAL SIGNIFICANCE to be tapped into. Thus, the forty odd thousand that is currently Liverpool's average attendance happens also to be - moreorless - Liverpool's maximum regular attendance OTHER THAN FOR the most attractive fixtures.

This submission is borne out both HISTORICALLY and by reference to THIS SEASON'S ATTENDANCES at the aforesaid run-of-the-mill league games and also cup games where the possession of a season ticket is not required.

The highest average attendance in our club's entire history is around 48,000. That came at a time when our club was eminently successful and capacity was nudging 56,750. That record average comprised several games at - or almost at - capacity such as Everton, United, Chelsea, Leeds but reveals several lesser fixtures struggling to break past 38,000.

Correspondingly, most of the less attractive league fixtures THIS season have failed to attract full capacities whilst attendances for cup-ties - apart from the most attractive European ties and the finely balanced domestic Semi-Final against Palace with their large away support - have been SIGNIFICANTLY below capacity.

Staying on this point, the attraction of European games is often cited as a reason for a significantly greater capacity. Yet, the reality does not bear this out. Apart from the recent Roma and Barcelona ties the attendance at every European tie this past decade or so has fallen significantly below capacity or has barely reached capacity. And, contrary to unsubstantiated rumours, even for the Roma and Barcelona ties it is unlikely whether there remained that much unquenched demand - certainly from supporters who could by any stretch of the imagination be branded as core supporters. And taking this point even further how many such fly-by-night supporters will pledge their support if such fixtures were ever to become run-of-the-mill in the Champions League as opposed to one-off mouthwatering affairs?

All this prompts the question - if we just about manage to pack in forty odd thousand at Anfield on such occasions how on earth would we ever hope to fill a 70,000 stadium, particularly once the novelty of such a prestigious move has evaporated?

We would justifiably ask. Where are all these mythical legions of supporters to be found? The ones cited by so many as the reason behind the move? The ones who so vociferously support the idea of the new stadium and who vow so adamantly that they will fill it?

We must stress that we are not setting out deliberately to goad here. The fact is hard-hitting, soul-searching questions simply demand to be asked AND ANSWERED before the club begins even to entertain the possibility of quitting our beloved home.

We at A4E have been Anfield regulars for many many years. We've seen the fickle souls come and go. Surely what we are saying does at least prompt the need for more serious thought than has to date been given into the reasoning behind the move and the buttessment of our realistic regular active drawing power.

If at some such games we sometimes struggle to ambutt 20,000 of our own kind - such as has been the case so often these past few years - how the hell on earth can we then seriously look in the eye the prospect of a stadium with almost four times that capacity?"

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