Next year's forward lines, my prediction. 67



Le Dieu So what? You keep coming up with scenarios and saying that because that scenario makes it "easy" to win the CL, then the CL is easier than to win than the league. But that's not correct, because I can come up with scenarios in which the CL is harder to win that the CL (e.g. Chelsea drawing a tough group and then drawing Milan, Madrid, Barca, and Bayern in the knockout stages) which make the CL harder to win than the league. These scenarios are much more likely because there is a lot of good teams in the CL.

As I expected, you have missed the point or are deliberately pretending to not understand.

Next year's forward lines, my prediction. 68
Le Dieu Excellent. So we have an agreement that if the CL is easier to win, then the probablity of team T wining the CL, written...

There is only logic in it. But before I explain it to you, let me ask: How do you define "easier"? You are saying that it is easier for Liverpool to win the CL than the league. Would you agree then that the probability of Liverpool winning the CL is greater than of them winning the title? If not, how do you define "easier"?

I'm starting to suspect that by "easier" you mean that you, personally, are able to constuct an unlikely, hypothetical scenario in which a team gets a run of weaker teams and a heap of lucky breaks, which is really quite a weak argument, because its more likely that they will get a tough draw. So, give me your definition of "easier" that has some mathematical basis (that is, we can directly compare the "easiness" of winning leagues and cups) and can be applied to any draw and any series of games, without resorting to some example scenario about a lucky draw, and I'll explain why you are wrong.

 




Football | Previous | Next

Next year's forward lines, my prediction. 68 | Next year's forward lines, my prediction. 66