Le Dieu
Excellent. So we have an agreement that if the CL is easier to win, then the probablity of team T wining the CL, written CL(T), is great that of them winning the league, written PL(T). So, PL(T)
Again, those are just example scenarios. You are failing to take into account that all of them can go against you... e.g. you could be the team having a bad day, your opponent has to play less games, you may be on the end of a bad decision.
What you are saying is that the minimum number of games you have to win (or play well) is less in the CL, but that doesn't make it easier to win.
A sample size of 1 is hardly convincing. Could you explain why Manutd have managed 14 titles and only 2 European cups? Even in the last 10 or so years in which they've entered both competitions every year, they've only managed on CL. If it were easier to win, they would be winning more, or at least coming close. In fact,
The reason Liverpool won the CL last year was because Rafa knew the CL -- he didn't know the English league. That's why we improved so much in the league this year.
Anyway, time for me to explain why you are wrong. Let's go back to the bet I wanted. Because the CL is easier to win, for the 4 Chelsea, L for Liverpool, and M for Manutd. Now, we have the following:
So, I think you'll agree that the probability of any of those 4 teams winning the PL, PL(A) + PL(C) + PL(L) + PL(M), is very high. Above 95%... probably above 99%. Therefore, if a bookie gave you even odds that one of them would win the premiership (i.e., if ANY of them won the PL, you'd win back whatever you bet), you'd take the bet. Do we agree on this paragraph?
Next year's forward lines, my prediction. 70Sorry Timbo, I thought we were having an almost interesting discussion. When you get out of the 'lower grades of school' standard insults perhaps we can continue. Meanwhile, yes, 'easier' perhaps...
Now, take the odds of any of these teams winning the CL: CL(A) + CL(C) + CL(L) + CL(M). Because we know that for every team, T, numbers, we know the following:
which means that the probability of one of A, C, L, M winning the CL is greater than that of winning the PL. Therefore, what you are saying (given that you agree that "easier" means a better probability of winning) is, take the probability of one of A, C, L, or M winning the premiership (let's say 95% to be safe); then, the probability of one of them winning the CL is ABOVE 95%, as I have proved... not proved by some weak scenario, but actually using probability and order theory. So you would be crazy not to put a bet on all 4 of them, because the bookies clearly don't understand what they are doing, and are giving much lower odds than that.
Quo = UnitedStatus Quo Manchester United Football Club) Busby Babes they always made me cry Thinkin' 'bout the teams of years gone by Charlton, Edwards, Law and Georgie Best We're United, you can keep the rest Schmeichel...
QED.
Now, I await your response, and if it contains anything about getting lucky draws, playing an opponent on a bad day, etc, then I will argue no further, content with the knowledge that you don't know what you are talking about.
